The Gulf energy crisis could remove as much as $94 billion from projected ad expenditure gains over the next two years, WARC indicates.
WARC says that a prolonged Middle East conflict could wipe out up to $50 billion in ad gains this year. Even a milder crisis would threaten $19 billion in gains, with continued impacts into 2027.
James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at WARC, and author of the research, noted, “Even in a contained scenario, an oil shock of this nature acts like a tax on consumers—pushing up prices while eroding real spending power. In a more prolonged or severe disruption, we move into stagflation territory, where sectors like travel, automotive, food, and consumer electronics take a direct hit from both rising costs and falling demand. The net effect is a meaningful squeeze on discretionary spend that puts up to $50 billion of anticipated ad market growth at risk this year, as brands pare back their media investment in a bid to preserve thinning margins.”
WARC had initially projected 2026 ad growth of 10.4 percent to $1.32 trillion.
