Addressing ATF delegates at the show’s pre-market lineup of conference sessions, Omdia’s Tony Gunnarsson outlined the key trends expected to define the global media and entertainment sector over the next five years, including slowed SVOD growth, social-media-driven advertising, and the rising importance of microdrama and FAST.
Gunnarsson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, delivered the opening keynote address for ATF’s Leaders Dialogue ahead of Wednesday’s official show opening.
“Global media as a whole is increasing every year,” Gunnarsson said, projecting 2025 revenues of $1.1 trillion across TV, streaming, film, music, and gaming. Online video and TV dominate, accounting for some 70 percent of the global pie. In the next five years, global media and entertainment will near $1.5 trillion, with much of that led by streaming—notably advertising on SVOD services and social video.
“Incrementally, advertising within streaming is going to increase. It’s about 64% today. By 2030, more than 70% of streaming revenues will come from advertising.”
Traditional TV continues to decline, “but not perhaps as much as some people think,” he said.
Social video advertising continues to surge as YouTube leads the top services used in key markets worldwide.
Meanwhile, Gunnarsson noted, “pay TV is still the number one revenue generator for our industry, but online video is closing in. In 2026, online video is going to make more revenue than pay TV.”
Some markets will see pay-TV gains, including China, while India is expected to experience a significant decline.
SVOD has been the major growth story of the last few years, “but we’re very, very quickly moving toward single-digit growth rates. By 2028, every region around the world is going to be in single-digit growth rates.”
Subscriber numbers saw huge spikes beginning in 2017 before peaking in 2020 and 2021 amid the pandemic. Growth slowed starting in 2023 as the number of platforms exploded and users began flocking to free services.
The top SVOD platforms have a 40 percent market share of global streaming, “which we are not exactly seeing change in,” he said. “Their focus is on maintaining market share.”
SVOD has been able to maintain its growth trajectory thanks to the rollout of ad-supported tiers on platforms. About 40% of revenues at the big streamers in the U.S. are generated by ads, not subscriptions, he said. Bundling has also become mainstream. “Pay TV bundling with SVOD has helped Netflix and others to grow their audience, but also allows pay TV to remain relevant and the biggest revenue generator for our industry.”
Gunnarsson then shifted his focus to FAST, where ad revenues are projected to reach some $11 billion in 2025. The U.S. is out front, followed by Europe, but “all regions are putting in impressive growth.”
He added, however, “for all the amazing growth behind FAST, it is and will continue to be a tiny part of our industry.”
The session then moved on to exploring the microdrama boom, with revenues in 2030 projected to reach $22 billion across subscriptions, in-app purchases and advertising. By the end of next year, revenues are set to hit $14 billion, led by China and then the U.S.
In 2030, streaming revenues will overtake traditional TV revenues globally. “Streaming is absolutely the key driver of media and entertainment overall.”
