For ScreenMDM Extra and ScreenMDM Club subscribers, we explore some of the trends reshaping the factual sector, from the need to build returnable franchises to true-crime’s next wave, the value of sports docs, the vital role of pubcasters, and the impact of AI.
If you weren’t at MIP London, you missed out on two data-rich presentations on the Sunday morning. Guy Bisson of Ampere Analysis walked delegates through commissioning trends, noting that factual is in a better position than many other genres, and provided a checklist of what producers should do to secure a broadcast or streamer commission. He was followed by Beatrice Rossmanith of Mothership Media Consultancy, who discussed some of the editorial trends that viewers are responding to, from more authentic takes on true crime to anxieties about AI. Rossmanith also highlighted the use of AI in documentary filmmaking, a theme that came up in many of my conversations with executives at Realscreen Summit and London TV Screenings. Excerpts from those fantastic MIP London sessions, our Realscreen Summit coverage, and insights from our recent interviews with execs from BossaNova Media, Viaplay Content Distribution, and Gennie, are recapped here for our ScreenMDM Extra subscribers and ScreenMDM Club members as we take a deep dive into some of the major trends at play in the business.
What’s Inside
- The Big Picture: The overall landscape.
- Crime Pays, But So Does Diversity: What’s working in this still very in-demand true-crime space.
- Game On: It’s a big year for sports, and companion docs are booming.
- Techno-Anxiety & AI: Fears about AI and technology, and new narrative opportunities.
- The YouTube Conundrum: Opportunities at the world’s biggest media company.
- Checklists for Securing Commissions: Bisson helpfully provided checklists for what commissioners are seeking, based on Ampere’s AI-powered analysis.
The Big Picture: Resilience and regional hotbeds
Despite the broader market contraction, Guy Bisson, executive director and co-founder at Ampere Analysis, notes that while it’s rough for factual producers and distributors, other sectors have been harder hit.
“The global market for commissioning came off the boil in 2022 and has been about 25% down volume-wise, across the board, since then,” he said. “The good news is that documentary is not down as much as some sectors.”
There are a couple of factors helping sustain the sector, including continued investment by Western European media companies, particularly public-service broadcasters, and rising investment by streamers in sports, which is driving momentum for companion programming. We’ll come back to this.
(For more on public broadcasters and their factual remits, check out our previous ScreenMDM Extra post from Realscreen Summit, In the Public Interest.)
BossaNova Media, like many indie distributors, is playing a key role in helping to get commissions off the ground, investing in development, and facilitating co-pros and prebuys. Asked about his overall approach to slate curation, CEO Paul Heaney commented: “Returnable, repeatable, scalable, sustainable. Shows that can return and repeat. If someone wants to double the order, from 10 to 20, is that possible with this type of show? And is it affordable?”
Crime Pays: Still in demand, but audiences are craving new takes
Rossmanith and Bisson both highlighted the tremendous importance of true crime, particularly for streamers.
“True crime still drives documentary viewership on the streamers—the genre consistently reaches more accounts than any other factual sub-genre,” Rossmanith said. “It’s the most competitive and saturated.”
“The bar is very high, so channels themselves don’t want to put anything out that may have been too similar to something before, unless it’s an incredibly new bit of evidence or a new area or someone who hasn’t been interviewed before,” Heaney says of the true-crime commissioning space. “Viewers and buyers have got wise to, it’s not a four-parter unless there’s some really properly definable twists and turns and cliffhangers. That initial flood might be over. They do sell, but the market is oversupplied. We have to look at maybe two or three times as many crime projects to find what we want. Every single production company has a crime project. We’d rather have more series right now. The buyers aren’t necessarily saying we want more series, but we think we would. We think, as a business, with the way that other revenue streams are growing, that would be a sensible way to go next.”
Read more on Substack or via our latest post for ScreenMDM Club members.
