Fans had to wait an average of 21 months for their favorite SVOD scripted originals to come back last year, up from 12 months in 2020, Ampere Analysis has found, threatening potential churn if platforms aren’t able to maintain engagement.
The height of the streaming wars in 2022 saw platforms release 599 scripted originals, slightly more than the 591 produced from 2015 to 2019. Production timelines have increased significantly since then.
Engagement can be high for shows that returned after long gaps; series that came back after 30 months or more achieved the highest engagement in the premiere month of the new season. That was the case for hits like Apple TV’s Severance and Netflix’s Wednesday. Sci-fi and fantasy titles—the complex, big-budget ones—do generally perform well despite long gaps. Comedy fans are less willing to wait. Crime and thriller generally perform consistently, regardless of release pattern.
Long gaps can drive engagement as existing audiences rewatch previous seasons, and new viewers discover shows. Hence, “the Stranger Things effect” Ampere alludes to; viewing rose by 300% ahead of the release of the fifth and final season.
But there are dangers. In the first quarter of this year, 54% of respondents said they would be likely to cancel a service subscription if they were not using it often enough. Long season gaps could drive “churn-and-return” cycles.
Christen Tamisin, senior analyst at Ampere Analysis, said, “Many original shows build highly dedicated audiences that remain loyal despite increasingly long waits between seasons. However, streamers need to balance blockbuster production timelines against a steady flow of content. Extended gaps may generate anticipation around flagship titles, but they can also encourage audiences to cancel subscriptions and return only when major shows are back on screen.”
